Research
Journal Papers
“The ‘Green buildings’ directive: A quantification of its costs and benefits in two Italian regions”, with F. Fortuna, E. Giarda, F. Giovanardi, D. Panarello, Journal of Housing Economics, 2025.
“A news-based macro uncertainty index for Italy”, with M. Catalano, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2025.
“One transformer for all time series: representing and training with time-dependent heterogeneous tabular data”, with S. Luetto, F. Garuti, E. Sangineto and R. Cucchiara, Machine Learning, 2025.
“How to overcome the short-term costs of the climate transition?”, with M. Tavoni, CESIfo EconPol Forum, 2023.
“A machine learning approach to rank the determinants of banking crises over time and across countries”, with E.J. Casabianca, M. Catalano, E. Giarda and S. Passeri, Journal of International Money and Finance, September 2022.
“Fiscal Policies for a Sustainable Recovery and a Green Transformation”, with M. Catalano, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9799, October 2021.
“Global liquidity and dollar debts of emerging market corporates”, with P. Turner, VoxEU Op-ed, January 2021.
“Sovereign Debt Restructuring and Growth”, with G. Palomba, J. Pereira, and C. Richmond, Oxford Economic Papers, 2020.
“Private and Public Debt Interlinkages in Bad Times“, with M. Bernardini, Journal of International Money and Finance, 109, 2020.
“Climate Change Adaptation - the Role of Fiscal Policy”, with M. Catalano and E. Pezzolla, Resource and Energy Economics, 2019.
“Fiscal Rules to Tame the Political Budget Cycle - Evidence from Italian Municipalities”, with A. Bonfatti, European Journal of Political Economy, 2019.
“Extending the average life of public debt to reduce annual emissions”, with M.V. Bresciani and S. Passeri, Economia Italiana, 2019.
“Increasing Resilience: Fiscal Policy for Climate Adaptation” in Fiscal Policies for Development and Climate Action, with M. Catalano and E. Pezzolla, 2018, World Bank Group.
“Sovereign restructuring vs. fiscal adjustment in a monetary union: macroeconomic effects from model-based simulations”, with M. Pisani, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2018, 22, 470–500.
“Public Employment and Compensation Reform during Times of Fiscal Consolidation”, with N. Novta, International Tax and Public Finance, 2016, 23:960–979.
“Euro area and global oil shocks: an empirical model-based analysis”, with A. Gerali, A. Notarpietro and M. Pisani, Journal of Macroeconomics, 2015, 46, 295–314.
“Fiscal Multipliers: Size, Determinants, and Use in Macroeconomic Projections”, with N. Batini, L. Eyraud, and A. Weber, IMF Technical Notes and Manual, 2014.
“Pricing of Sovereign Risk: Evidence from Advanced Economies during the Recent Financial Crisis”, with E. Alper and M. Gerard, International Finance, 2013, 16(2).
“The macroeconomics of fiscal consolidations in Euro area countries”, with A. Gerali and M. Pisani, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2011, 34(9).
“Default in Today’s Advanced Economies: Unnecessary, Undesirable, and Unlikely”, with C. Cottarelli, J. Gottschalk, and P. Mauro, IMF Staff Position Note, September 2010.
“Macroeconomic effects of greater competition in the service sector: the case of Italy”, with A. Gerali and M. Pisani, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2010, 14.
“The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: estimates for the euro area”, with L. Monteforte and L. Sessa, Journal of Public Economics, 2009.
“Inflation Convergence and Divergence within the European Monetary Union”, with F. Busetti, A. Harvey and F. Venditti, International Journal of Central Banking, 2007.
“Social Security as Markov Equilibrium in OLG Models”, Review of Economic Dynamics, 2005.
“Cyclical Sensitivity of Fiscal Policies based on Real Time Data”, with S. Momigliano, Applied Economics Quarterly, 2004.
“The Mismatch Between Life Insurance Holdings and Financial Vulnerabilities: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study”, with B.D. Bernheim, J. Gokhale and L.J. Kotlikoff, American Economic Review, 2003.
“Funding a PAYG Pension System: The Case of Italy”, with R. Giordano, Fiscal Studies, 2001.
“Market based debt reduction agreements: a case study on Mexican and Polish Brady bonds”, with L. Barbone, International Journal of Finance & Economics, April 2001. (Also World Bank PRWP 1734, 1997.)
“How Much Should Americans Be Saving for Retirement?”, with B.D. Bernheim, J. Gokhale and L.J. Kotlikoff, American Economic Review, 2000.
Working Papers
“Are Incentives for Energy Retrofitting Regressive? Evidence from the Italian Superbonus and Ecobonus”, with E. Giarda and S. Sommer, SSRN Working Paper, 2025.
“Efficiency and Equity in Green Transitions”, with A. Camilli, L. Casprini, and M. Catalano, Mimeo, 2025.
“Fiscal Policies for a Sustainable Recovery and a Green Transformation”, with M. Catalano, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper n. 9799, 2021.
Books and Chapters
Preventing the Greenlash – How to Overcome Opposition to Green Policies. Agenda Publishing, 2024. Presented at the Brookings Institution (January 23, 2025) and Bruegel (November 5, 2024).
"Climate transition: implications for fiscal policies", in Fiscal Policy in a Turbulent Era, ed. Enrique Alberola. Edward Elgar Publishing (with BIS), 2024.
The Magic Money Tree and Other Economic Tales. Agenda Publishing, July 2021. Financial Times top ten list of economic books, 2021.
"Escaping high debt: the narrow path ahead" (with M. Moreno Badia), in Post-Crisis Fiscal Policy, eds. C. Cottarelli, P. Gerson, and A. Senhadji. MIT Press, 2014.
"The other crisis: sovereign distress in the euro area" (with M. De Broeck and M. Guerguil), in Post-Crisis Fiscal Policy, eds. C. Cottarelli, P. Gerson, and A. Senhadji. MIT Press, 2014.
"An analysis of retirement expectations using the Health and Retirement Study" in Ricerche Quantitative per la Politica Economica. Bank of Italy, 2003.
"An economic approach to setting retirement saving goals" (with B. D. Bernheim, J. Gokhale, and L. J. Kotlikoff), in Innovation in Retirement Financing, eds. O. Mitchell, Z. Bodie, P. B. Hammond, and S. Zeldes. University of Pennsylvania Press, 2002.